Services sector activities improved further and touched a five-month high in April driven by a surge in incoming new work orders that boosted business activity and supported a renewed increase in employment, according to a survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 57.9 in April, from 53.6 in March, highlighting a sharp rate of expansion that was the fastest since last November amid mounting price pressures. For the ninth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
The combination of sanctions, and low fuel prices is really hurting the Putin regime.
Treat silver as part of the procyclical or growth assets in your portfolio, advises Sanjay Kumar Singh.
After unseasonal rains, supply disruptions and pandemic-induced woes pushed retail inflation well over the Reserve Bank's comfort zone in 2020, the scenario is likely to stay that way at least in the short term as economic recovery slowly gains foothold. For most part of this year, pricier food items pushed the retail inflation, based on Consumer Price Index (CPI), higher in the range of 6.58-7.61 per cent, except for March when the reading was 5.91 per cent. Experts believe retail inflation is likely to average around 6.3 per cent this fiscal and mostly will remain sticky going forward owing to pick-up in demand across sectors.
Reiterating his earlier stance, BJP's Rajya Sabha member Subramanian Swamy has written a letter to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, asking him to sack RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
India's GDP growth to reach 8% by 2017. says World Bank
A reversal of policy at this juncture could jeopardise the recent gains on inflation
Movement of rupee and crude oil prices will also dictate the trend
The Reserve Bank remains laser-focused to bring back retail inflation to 4 per cent over a period of time in a non-disruptive manner, Governor Shaktikanta Das stressed while voting for status quo in interest rates, as per minutes of the October policy meeting released on Friday. The central bank has been mandated by the government to ensure the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation is at 4 per cent, with a band of 2 per cent on either side. The retail inflation, which was above 6 per cent during May and June, has started moving down and stood at 4.35 per cent in September.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
Bankers said high interest rate could make Indian economy sluggish given that inflation is around 5%
Broader markets underperformed indices with BSE Midcap down 0.43% while the Smallcap index fell 0.07%.
But lower growth numbers in the quarters to come may not mean renewed weakness in the economy at the ground level, says Pranjul Bhandari.
In the current fiscal so far, retail inflation stabilised around 5 per cent, while wholesale price-based inflation averaged around 2.9 per cent during April-December.
Inflation indexed bonds assure a positive return over inflation.
It is also likely to assume a deflator of around 4 per cent. That could take the nominal GDP outlook for FY21 to around 10 per cent. It is this nominal GDP forecast on the basis of which the finance ministry is calculating key Budget targets like the fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP and tax revenue growth for the coming year.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
The FMCG sector is generally considered to be a safe haven during difficult times as people never stop buying soap and toothpaste. However, weak rural and semi-urban demand has been a factor since the lockdowns of 2020-21 while rising inflation has also impacted margins. While the FMCG majors have survived on the basis of price hikes and good management practices, they have seen growth slowdowns and experienced margins being squeezed as raw materials and transport costs rose. The FMCG sector witnessed positive volume growth in the fourth quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) after five consecutive quarters of decline, and the rebound in demand was led by urban markets.
The Reserve Bank's growth projection for next financial year is lower than 8-8.5 per cent projected by the finance ministry in the recent Economic Survey which was tabled in Parliament on January 31. Unveiling the bi-monthly policy, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said, "Recovery in domestic economic activity is yet to be broad-based, as private consumption and contact-intensive services remain below pre-pandemic levels."
Markets surged in late trades to snap five-day losing streak led by bank shares.
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
Clouding the inflation outlook is the recommendation of the 7th pay panel for an average 24 per cent pay hike for millions of its employees, which would lift demand-driven price pressures.
The Indian real estate consumer is still in the wait and watch mode.
Earnings growth, attractive valuations and change in FPI flows from negative to positive over the next 12 months are some of the key triggers for an upside. "A poor monsoon, high inflation and further rate hike are some of the key risks
Though inflation, on the basis of the wholesale price index, is nowhere near the 1990-91 level of 10.26 per cent and India is in a much better position to check it, the greater integration of our economy with the globe has exposed it to a much higher risk of imported inflation.
The re-opening of the Chinese economy, as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy, could help stabilise commodity prices, according to some of the country's top metal companies. They view this as a positive for demand, at a time when markets such as the US and Europe have been largely weighed down by slowdown concern now. "Most of us in the metals business are hoping the Chinese economy picks up because half of any metal demand, including demand for aluminium, comes from China.
Food prices probably fueled a sharp rise in India's retail inflation in December after the record low struck the previous month.
Market participants must appreciate that staying cautious is a virtue for central bankers and should not expect a sudden reversal in the formal monetary policy stance.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
If rate cuts are fully transmitted, and RBI continues to cut rates in 2016, and earnings growth picks up as well, current valuations may be justified. Otherwise, equity will remain over-valued, says Devangshu Datta.
'When you need to revive the economy, when you need to revive aggregate demand, you cut taxes.' 'But what's this government doing?' 'It's increasing taxes for the middle class and the vast majority of the poor on fuel, which has a ratchet effect on most other products.'
Keeping pace with the rapidly changing income and consumption pattern, the government will soon come out with a new Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and develop indices for measuring growth of SSI sector and calculating consumer prices in urban areas.
Raghuram Rajan said the passage of the GST Bill augurs well for the growing political consensus for economic reforms.
What differentiates Rajan from his predecessors is his proactive steps in anticipating a problem and coming up with out-of-the-box solutions
As inflation rate is near the upper limit of the comfort zone, experts rule out rate cuts anytime soon
CPI inflation slowed to 9.39% in April compared with 10.39% in March.
The survey showed firms' confidence regarding future business grew at the slowest pace in a year last month.
'If there is an RBI majority in the committee, there is no question of a veto.'
Govt likely to get full control on policy rate.
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